Friday, March 12, 2004

U.S.: The war to get GWB out of the White House

By restricting OPEC output since the end of hostilities in Iraq, the Saudis have forced oil prices up over the past several months. The American economic recovery is being slowly, almost imperceptibly, throttled. From a low of $23.61 per barrel in May, 2003, average crude oil prices have risen rather steadily, to $31.03 last month, up nearly one-third in eight months. If this rate of increase continues over the next eight months, the economic consequences for America will be grim.

Jobs are not being created at the expected rate, and increasing voter dissatisfaction with the President is shown in public opinion polling, with jobs and the economy heading the list of concerns. Additionally, the Saudis may have been reducing their holdings of petrodollars and converting them into non-dollar denominated assets. This has hurt the value of the dollar. Money flows are difficult to follow, and currency manipulation may have unintended consequences, but a proxy for the Saudi desire to hurt America may be seen in the increasing number of oil field contracts going to non-US companies.

The other factor which may hurt Bush's chances for reelection is the situation in Iraq. Terrorists have been streaming in from Saudi Arabia, to wreak havoc and fund terror groups, despite protestations to the contrary by Saudi spinmeisters. Although attacks have been trending downward, an increase over the next several months would trigger renewed cries of "quagmire!"
As I've said before, terrorists will come from the Muslim Triangle via Mexico below, Canada above, and Venezuela and Cuba (Haiti is no longer an option) via an exodus of boat people. They'll be well funded by the Saudis, of course. That's the human resource angle.

The economic angle we're seeing that in play already via OPEC, the Saudis, in particular, and Venezuela. Russia cannot be trusted to provide oil. Britain, yes. Trinidad will, but T&T has to keep an eye out for another attempted coup before November 6, 2004. Remember Enyahooma-El and the extradition charges to the U.S.? They include Mac-10s with silencers. For what? Anyway, Chavez is going to ramp up the rhetoric as a pretext for cutting off oil supplies to the U.S. So look for OPEC to freeze imports to the U.S. in order to bring the U.S. economy to a grinding halt. Add to the mix Al Qaeda ramping up terrorist attacks, not threats. Attacks. Look also for attacks on the Iraqi oil fields, disruption of the lines heading to Turkey. The confluence of all these events is supposed to be catastrophic. The Democrats? They're not even on the radar.

The short term goal is to bury the U.S. economy and George W. Bush's presidency. The long term goal is to ruin the world economy so the Islamists can move in, flush with oil.

What we in the Caribbean have to figure out is this: do we want to live under the Islamic star and crescent? If the U.S. — which is in the frontlines of the war on terror — falls, then have your ladies buy their burqas. Whose side will the Caribbean be on? Current rhetoric suggests not on the U.S.'s.

Newsflash: The Islamo- and other fascists will fail!


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