Wednesday, March 17, 2004

Vzla: The local argument why the recall will not happen

Chavez cannot, will not go to a Recall Election. If he loses it, his international career is over. He might still have some future in Venezuela but he can forget about becoming Castro's heir.

His people cannot let him go to an election that he might lose, because without Chavez they are nothing. After 5 years, perhaps the most amazing thing in chavismo is that it has produced no one with a shred of leadership, except, wits will say, for Lina Ron.

We are not talking politics here, and even less ideology or sense of mission. We are talking about a group of people that made off with power, and privilege, and as any good Mafia or street gang, they are not going to let go.

It is really quite simple. Everything else are mere words of justification.
This is most likely true at the local level. At the international level, it is highly unlikely that the nascent socialist bloc in South America, allied with Cuba and, perhaps, the new socialist leader of Spain, will allow the Venezuela's recall election to come to pass. Too much is depending on it.

The Caribbean, in which there is an unhealthy amount of anti-U.S. sentiment, may be caught in the middle, as well as it may decide to toss in its chips with the socialists in South America, seeing them, in the post-Aristide world, as a counter-weight to U.S. power in the region. Enough Caribbean countries have flirted with socialism, or have had semi-socialist or outright socialist governments (T&T, Grenada, Jamaica, Guyana all come to mind) to make these countries make the wrong decision of aligning themselves with the anti-free trade socialists.

The recent Chavez moves in relation to Guyana; T&T's PM Manning's visit to Venezuela seeking support for Caricom's position, in relation to Aristide, are enough to raise questions.

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