Wednesday, March 31, 2004

Vzla: It's just a matter of time

Many analysts assume that President Chavez's control is complete and he has full capacity to either block or delay the recall referendum (RR) indefinitely. Several recent developments suggest that such a conclusion may be correct.
The reality is that Chavez's control over institutions hangs on a thread an individual here and there and not much more. He holds a three to two majority in the CNE. He holds a three to two majority in the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court. As was demonstrated this week he does not hold a majority in the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court. According to most estimates the Sala is either split or the opposition could potentially gain a majority. The continual struggles within the institutions are not consistent with a president with an iron grip on the institutions. Instead, the continual state of conflict suggests that he is engaged in an ever-present, intense battle to maintain control, but always just a step away from losing it.
Read the article to discover the recent developments.


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