Hti: Forced out or negotiated out?

The gist of the article on Aristide and the Miami Haitian community is that Aristide's departure was preceded by lots of negotiation and pressure from the international community. So why is he saying that U.S. Marines kidnapped him and forced him to leave? The U.S. has a signed letter of resignation from him. Now, who are we to believe? The usual suspects, Randall Robinson (of hunger strike fame) and Maxine Waters? Or the Bush administration?

Apparently, Aristide had a choice of leaving or meeting rough justice at Guy Philippe's hands, and he decided to leave and save his skin.

McClellan said Aristide's aides had contacted the U.S. ambassador to Haiti on Saturday and asked if Aristide would be given protection by the United States if he resigned. The ambassador consulted with Washington, then called Aristide's aides and told them that if Aristide decided to resign, the United States "would facilitate his departure," McClellan said. "And we did."
...
Asked directly if Aristide left of his own free will, McClellan said, "Yes."

Powell said flatly, "He was not kidnapped," and criticized U.S. congressmen for saying that Aristide had been kidnapped without checking with the Bush administration first to see what the story was.

"He was not kidnapped. We did not force him on the airplane. He went on the plane willingly," Powell said.

The secretary said Aristide wrote a letter of resignation and only then did the United States bring an airplane to help him leave the country.

Perhaps those rushing to judgment ought to bear this in mind:

"Aristide is a disguised dictator," said Evans Paul, a former ally who turned against Aristide and has now become an outspoken leader of the opposition Convention for Democratic Unity. "Because he is running this country so badly, every day he stays in power is catastrophic for the country," Paul said. "Aristide is known as a man who never keeps his word. Nobody can trust him."

It is thus highly likely that Aristide told Randall Robinson and others that he was forced to resign even though he'd prepared and signed the letter of resignation himself. In that way, Aristide plays to his supporters in the Congressional Black Caucus and muddies the GOP's appeal to Haitians in Florida. This would be of a piece with Aristide's actions over time. Aristide may be gone as Haiti's leader, but he is still creating chaos, not just in Haiti, but also in the U.S. and the rest of the Caribbean. Watch as Democrats jump on this and accuse the Bush administration of every filthy thing under the sun.

Which way Caricom heads will go is debatable. They had been working with the Bush administration on a political solution to the Haitian problem, and they may not be pleased with Aristide's resignation and exile. However, it is possible that T&T PM, Patrick Manning, may have been hinting at Aristide's departure when he said

“I had a call from the Secretary General Friday evening on this matter and we spoke at length about how we might now proceed.

“Something has been approved but in a different version from what we had anticipated was required.”

He declined to say what this “something” was, citing security reasons, and because “it’s an international issue and I just don’t want to be talking too much about it.”

“I’ve not been asked not to say anything. I think it prudent not to say anything. And there are many security aspects to it,” he added.

He admitted the plan did not rule out sending T&T’s armed troops to Haiti.

“In short, all I am authorised to say is that there are other initiatives that are taking place behind the scenes,” he said.

The only problem with this scenario is that it does not account for the U.N.'s emergency meeting on Sunday. It is possible, though, that all those countries involved were in favor of Aristide's resignation but did not imagine that he would leave without having his supporters stand down.

It is possible that PM Manning's statement "that Caricom was not in support of the unconstitutional removal of an elected Government" and that "Aristide was free to resign, if he so desired" augurs well for how Caricom may respond to Aristide's departure. For, if as

A Jamaica Gleaner January 2, 2004 editorial suggests CARICOM’s [failed to participate in Haiti's independence celebrations out of] a fear of appearing to support the Administration of Jean-Bertrand Aristide in the light of quarrels in that country concerning the legitimacy of the government,

then it is quite likely that Caricom, concerned about the constitutional process in Haiti, would accept his resignation and the temporary administration of SCJ Boniface Alexandre, whose his ascendance is according to the Haitian constitution, because the procedural requirements have been met to the satisfaction of the parties involved.