Vzla: Are OPEC and Venezuela gaming the system?

Oil prices forged new one year highs today as concerns political strife in Venezuela could spin out of control combined with expectations that OPEC will keep its vow to cut output next month.

U.S refiners made plans for possible supply disruptions in Venezuela despite assurances from OPEC's third biggest producer that this would not happen. The Bush administration said it was "extremely concerned" about surging gasoline prices.
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OPEC member Venezuela is a leading supplier of crude and refined products to the United States.

"At present, crude prices are essentially reacting to each new day's news, with growing fears over possible disruptions to Venezuelan production being the main driver this morning," said Barclays Capital in a research note.

The re-election of GWB is not desirable to either OPEC or Venezuela. Both parties are aware that Bush is a man of his word who will prosecute the war on terror by striking pre-emptively at America's enemies if necessary. It may be that Chavez will do just enough to keep Venezuela roiled and tensions high enough to impact oil prices -- if that would negatively impact the U.S. economy and propel John Kerry into the White House, then that high risk gamble would be worth it. This all may sound far-fetched, and it most likely is; however, too many despots around the world do have a clear interest in ensuring GWB's defeat in November. With Bush gone, terrorism would be allowed to flower. Then, the U.S. would be subject to a three-pronged attack: from Canada in the north; from the Mid-East via planes and ships; and, from the Muslim Triangle (nexus of Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay) working in tandem with Chavez and Castro. A possible fourth route would be via smuggling ships from Asia, which would be the likely route for Abu Sayyaf currently of the Phillippines. It may be paranoid, but it does sound a likely scenario.