Monday, August 02, 2004

US: The Election as market projection.


Samizdatista Robert Clayton Dean has forwarded a prediction based on an analysis that makes a great deal of sense to me.

To whit:
The Dems and their allies in the press have thrown everything they have at W, beginning in the 2000 election, through the Florida recount, and right up to the present day. They have nothing new left to attack him with, I am quite confident. The persistently partisan and anti-Bush media has managed to inure the public to bad
"Kerry is notable for not exciting the Democratic base"
news from Iraq or elsewhere. The Bush campaign has not really activated yet, on the theory that nothing they do before Labor Day will really matter. In short, Bush has tested the bottom of his market for approval and votes, and it is somewhere in the mid to high 40 percent range.

By contrast, Kerry and Edwards are still pretty unknown to non-political-junkie Americans, and the Republican attack machine has (wisely, from a tactical point of view) held its fire on these two. They have enjoyed months of positive coverage and a showcase convention. However, their support even among Democrats is not particularly strong - Edwards never won a primary, and Kerry is notable for not exciting the Democratic base. The Democrats, in short, have tested the top of their market for votes, and it is somewhere in the high 40 percent range.

With the race statistically tied, Bush has nowhere to go but up, and Kerry has nowhere to go but down.
Yup...It appears that the Democrat machine has shot a great deal of their collective political wad in attacking Bush to little effect whilst calling for a unity that doesn't exist. Meanwhile the RNC has yet to even begin to sweet talk the electorate or to inform the American people on the 20 year record of obstructionist liberal mediocrity that Kerry 'forgot' to mention in his rather conventional choir-preaching acceptance speech.

Additional proof in the 'no-bounce' Convention pudding can be seen in how naturally the Fleet Center formality culminated in a single routine Kerry campaign photo-op at Wendy's degenerating into the triple embarrassment of a US Marine rebuffing Kerry, Tey-rey-suh wondering what a cup of Chili was, and the revelation that the cute Breck girl anniversary legend was not so special that they'd pass up campaign funded "five-star lunches" from the local yacht club.

Kerry seems to be a Weapon of Massachutan campaign Destruction...

Link ho' h/t's to Wizbang - Baldilocks - Samizdata

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