Tuesday, August 03, 2004

USVI: Hurricane season heats up

Well Alex is now category two and 30 or so hours to the east of Barbados we have TS 2:

WTNT42 KNHC 031510
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND IT IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF THE SYSTEM...AN ESPECIALLY FAST MOVING
ONE...HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITHOUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE. YOU COULD MAKE THE CASE THAT A SMALL CIRCULATION EXISTS
USING QUICKSAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS. THE DEPRESSION HAS ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION...BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND
GFDL MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS...
STEERED BY THE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...
LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FORCING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE
LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

PRELIMINARY COORDINATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THE METEOROLOGISTS
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO ISSUE WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY

.
I guess it's nearly time for a Hurricane related link dump.

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