Mercosur, the EU, and counter-balancing American power

David Jessop of the Jamaica Observer argues that new alignments in geopolitics are occurring between India and the Mercosur nations: Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina, resulting in free-trade agreements signed on January 25 before India's PM Vajpayee, Brazilian president Lula da Silva, and ministers from the Mercosur nations.

Under discussion between Brazil and Argentina is the "possible expansion of Mercosur to embrace all of South America." Andean Pact countries, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela, are very much interested in this new trade bloc. Furthermore, the EU is keeping an eye on what's happening with Mercosur and wants part of the action.

The EU, in view of the retardation of the FTAA negotiations and the "new-found willingness of EU member states to consider concessions in agricultural trade negotiations," wants to fast-track free trade negotiations with Mercosur nations.

All these negotiations aren't so much about trade as they are about strategic objectives and political positioning; the EU, perhaps seeking to establish itself as a counter-weight to American power, wants to align itself with Mercosur countries, hence their bid to "position Brazil closer, politically and culturally, to Europe than to the US." And Brazil is willing to play along with the game.

Jessop argues that because Brazil has few physical links and minimal trade relations with the Caribbean, apart from Cuba, the English-speaking countries will be on the fringe of this strategic new realignment occurring in their backyard. Since China isn't quite up to the weight of the U.S. as yet, then Lula's strategic vision for global realignment is of enormous significance. According to Jessop, Lula's endgame is "reform of the UN Security Council," on which Brazil, India and South Africa are demanding to have a permanent seat. In view of this, Jessop recommends that the Caricom leaders align themselves with Lula to attempt "to change the global balance of power" and so become more than "the United States' third border."

While Lula might have an excellent strategic vision for global realignment, going on Lula's track record, that realignment may take countries down the road to the serfdom of socialism. It is significant that Lula's strong Caribbean ties are not with the capitalist Caricom countries but with Castro's communist and oppressive Cuba. While Caricom nations may not wish to be regarded as the U.S. backyard, they are assured that the U.S. stands a sure and certain ally. To which of the Mercosur and allied countries can Caricom nations turn to when trouble strikes? Why should Caricom nations help Mercosur, the EU, and South Africa (all socialist) to form a counter-balance to American power when none of those countries can be trusted in a pinch?